INDUSTRIAL SPACE MARKET
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Polish economy growth rate exceeded 4% in Q3 of 2010, and it is expected that it will remain stable on this level for a subsequent quarter. Current evaluation of economic situation indicator BOSE increased for a third time in a row, which shows a slight improvement in enterprise sector in Q3 2010.
76 percent of tested companies evaluated its condition as very good or good (in a previous quarter the number of companies was one basis point lower). Moreover, indicator’s value stands at longterm average and demonstrates an upward trend.
However, polish economy condition is threaten by decreasing growth dynamics of industrial production, which (on a year-to-year basis) amounted to 8 percent in October, while it hit 14,3 percent four months earlier. This data is confirmed by entrepreneurs opinion, who indicate that insufficient demand rises certain market difficulties.
A key aspects of a durable and stable economic growth are, inter alia, the amount of enterprise sector’s investments and a rate of capacity utilization. A period of a slowdown of this macroeconomic parameters has significantly impacted the general growth dynamic of Gross Domestic Product. From the end of 2008 to mid-2009, investment continuation indicator decreased.
Furthermore, new investment indicator over a longer period, from January 2008 to December 2009, diminished even more.
Consolation can come from a deceleration of negative dynamics of both indicators, while average rate of capacity utilization has risen.
It is presumed, that further investment deterioration may follow implementation of so called S II Recommendation, which obliges banks to reduce share of granted foreign currency loans to 50 percent of its portfolio (currently more than a dozen financial institutions do not meet this condition).
The majority of investments on real estate market are financed by foreign currency loans, and new regulations implementation may cause banks’ difficulties with providing financing to investors on a real estate market.
Polish Financial Supervision Authority together with National Bank of Poland implements restrictions in order to protect financial system from customers insolvency resulting from potential currency crisis and from possibility of speculative bubble arising on the real estate market. Application of S II Recommendation will secure the financial system against eventual crisis, although, it may slacken a Polish real estate market growth dynamics in Q1 2011.
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INDUSTRIAL SPACE MARKET
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